Pay To Play: Giving Money to Local Pols (Part 2)

Speculators, Conjecturers & Prognosticators Be Warned

So, here we are - October. The election is nigh upon us. Now is normally the time for Political Junkies and other fortune tellers to issue their predictions, spin, projections, theories, and heaven help us, "models".

Random Election Model, Stolen From The Internet:

Complicating speculation on the outcome is Oakland's ranked-choice voting (RCV) which allows voters to indicate their first, second and third preference for each candidate, and when votes are counted, the support for eliminated candidates is passed on to the second and third choices of their first-choice votes. There has been little independent polling on any of these races (although this particular poll had some interesting results) but observers believe those candidates who raise the most political campaign contributions stand the best chance of, first, establishing name recognition, and second, organizing public support to win on November 6.

Campaign Finance: There Are Rules, Here

Oh yes, Oakland's Campaign Reform Act (OCRA) of 1974 limits campaign expenditures for Councilmember At-Large to $275,000 and for the seven District Councilmembers from $110,000 to $127,000 depending on the varying number of residents in each district (53,228 to 61,537).

There has been virtually no reporting about campaign contributions, in spite of detailed information available online from the Oakland City Clerk's office. The October 2012 campaign contribution Form 460 statements filed thus far by each candidate provide a profile of the race by amounts each candidate has raised, loans they have incurred and cash they have on hand for the final month. If you know who some of the lobbyists in Oakland are, their names pop up frequently to support several different candidates. Lily Hu, a well-known lobbyist for a range of clients, has contributed to several candidates.

Coming Soon: SHOW ME THE MONEY

I'm not going to attempt to tell you who's going to win, but in the next couple weeks (as soon as I get through all the Form 460s!) I'm going to tell you who's got money, who doesn't, where the money came from...and I'll let you decide who you think's going to win...and what they may or may not owe their corporate and lobbyist-client contributors. Stay tuned, folks!